Introductio to time series analysis

Introductio to time series analysis

1.

Subject title

Introductio to time series analysis

Вовед во анализа на временските серии

2.

Code

F23L3W076

3.

Study program

Примена на информациски технологии, Софтверско инженерство и информациски системи, Компјутерски науки, Компјутерско инженерство, Интернет, мрежи и безбедност, Информатичка едукација, Software engineering and information systems, Примена на информациски технологии, Софтверско инженерство и информациски системи, Компјутерски науки, Компјутерско инженерство, Интернет, мрежи и безбедност, Software engineering and information systems, Стручни студии за програмирање, Стручни студии за програмирање, Statistics and Data Analytics,

4.

Organizer of the study program (unit, institute, department, division)

Faculty of Information Sciences and Computer Engineering

5.

Study cycle (first, second, third)

Прв циклус

6.

Academic year / semester

4 / Зимски

7. Number of ECTS credits

6.0

8.

Instructor

ворн. проф. д-р Ефтим Здравевски

9.

Prerequisites for enrollment

Вештачка интелигенција или Вовед во науката за податоци или Машинско учење

10.

Subject goals and competencies:


Familiarization of students with the analysis of arbitrary time series with traditional statistical methods, as well as with methods based on deep learning. The course provides an introduction to the types of time series, covering stationary processes, ARMA models, ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA models, spatio-temporal methods. With the knowledge acquired in the course, students will be able to analyze time series from various sources, data streams, IoT and discover trends and anomalies, predict future occurrences, as well as use them to recognize various events that are described by time series.

11.

Subject content:


Lectures: 1. Characteristics of time series 2. Correlation and autocorrelation 3. Time Series Regression and Exploratory Data Analysis 4. ARIMA models 5. Spectral analysis and filtering 6. Feature extraction from time domain and statistical methods in frequency domain 7. Engineering and generation of time series attributes 8. Detection of anomalies 9. Detection of conceptual changes 10. Modeling of target variables for recognition of current events and prediction of future events 11. Use of different deep neural network architectures for time series analysis 12. Use of different learning methods in real time

12.

Learning methods:


Предавања поддржани со презентации преку слајдови, интерактивни предавања, вежби (користење на опрема и софтверски пакети), тимска работа, пример случаи, поканети гости предавачи, самостојна изработка и одбрана на проектна задача и семинарска работа, учење во електронско опкружување (форуми, консултации).

13.

Total available time fund

6.0 ECTS x 30 hours = 180 hours

14.

Time distribution

30 + 45 + 15 + 15 + 75 = 180 hours

15.

Forms of teaching activities

15.1.

Lectures - theoretical teaching

30 hours

15.2.

Exercises (laboratory, classroom), seminars, team work

45 hours

16.

Other forms of activities

16.1.

Project tasks

15 hours

16.2.

Independent tasks

15 hours

16.3.

Homework

75 hours

17.

Grading method

17.1.

Tests

10 points

17.2.

Seminar work / project (presentation: written and oral)

15 points

17.3.

Activities and learning

10 points

17.4.

Final exam

70 points

18.

Grading criteria (points / grade)

up to 50 points

5 (five) (F)

from 51 to 60 points

6 (six) (E)

from 61 to 70 points

7 (seven) (D)

from 71 to 80 points

8 (eight) (C)

from 81 to 90 points

9 (nine) (B)

from 91 to 100 points

10 (ten) (A)

19.

Condition for signature and taking final exam

Реализирани активности

20.

Language of instruction

македонски и англиски

21.

Quality assurance method

механизам на интерна евалуација и анкети

22.

Literature

22.1.

Mandatory literature

No.

Author

Title

Publisher

Year

4267

Robert H. Shumway David S. Stoffer

Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

Springer

2015

4268

Brockwell, Peter J., Davis, Richard A.

Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting

Springer

2016

4269

Douglas C. Montgomery, Cheryl L. Jennings, Murat Kulahci

Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting,

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

2015

4270

Joos Korstanje

Advanced Forecasting with Python: With State-of-the-Art-Models Including LSTMs, Facebook’s Prophet, and Amazon’s DeepAR

Apress

2021

4271

Jason Brownlee

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting Predict the Future with MLPs, CNNs and LSTMs in Python

Machine Learning Mastery

2020

4272

Ivan Gridin

Time Series Forecasting using Deep Learning: Combining PyTorch, RNN, TCN, and Deep Neural Network Models to Provide Production-Ready Prediction Solutions

BPB Publications

2021

4273

Aileen Nielsen

Practical Time Series Analysis: Prediction with Statistics and Machine Learning

O`Reilly

2019

4274

Francesca Lazzeri

Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python

Wiley

2020

4275

Ben Auffarth

Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python: Forecast, predict, and detect anomalies with state-of-the-art machine learning methods

Packt

2021

22.2.

Additional literature

No.

Author

Title

Publisher

Year